Who Will Survive Agrokor?

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Among many of Agrokor’s suppliers, it would seem some were better at managing their exposure than the others. Some major companies, such as AWT International, Granoli, Sokol Marić and Unex ended up in pre-bankruptcy, and Franck was saved in the nick of time by establishing a partnership with Tommy.
Most have survived so far, awaiting the final agreement to be proposed by Peruško and his team. Small suppliers, the most vulnerable group, were so far paid in full for old debt, and this kept them alive. Medium and large companies managed to recover about 40% of what they were owed, and now are awaiting the final deal with some anxiety. The worst off are those who financed Agrokor through bills of exchange – they got nothing so far, and stand to lose more than any other group of creditors.
Reports of listed companies filed so far indicate that the best at risk management were the Atlantic Grupa and Kraš. Atlantic expects to collect on everything, as testified by the fact that they have made no reservations or adjustments of value in the annual report. Atlantic’s financial report lists total exposure to all Agrokor retail chains at Kn 290 million, but stresses that collection proceeds normally in Serbia, Slovenia and Croatia, with exception related to a part of the marginal debt which in Croatia comes under the effects of Lex Agrokor. Atlantic already managed to collect a part of that debt, and the remainder of Kn 96.7 million should be covered in entirety over the next two to four years.
Kraš limited its exposure to Agrokor on time, and managed to collect a significant portion of its claims on various bills while Agrokor’s accounts were blocked. When the Special Administration was introduced Kraš managed to reduce its claims to Kn 27 million, part of which it managed to collect already.
Podravka is also not too exposed to Agrokor’s retail brands, but unlike the Atlantic and Kraš, it stands to write off at least a portion of that debt. Out of Kn 93.5 million in claims, Kn 60.8 million is held in bills of exchange. This is basically considered as unsecured financial debt and most of it will likely have to be written off. Podravka is owed Kn 3.2 million in “old debt for goods”, and the rest is claims from regular operations. Interestingly, Podravka also did not make any reservations in the unaudited report for 2017. The company explained that “currently there are no indications as to what the final agreement might look like”. The company expects to include any eventual reservation in the audited report which is expected by the end of March.
One of the largest Agrokor creditors is the Adris Grupa, which apparently lent Agrokor over Kn 1 billion through various arrangements. Adris profit and loss statement for Q4 2017 indicates reservations for potential loss of Kn 466.8 million in three separate categories – value adjustment of various assets (Kn 194.9 million), reservations (Kn 53.7 million), and unrealized losses on financial assets (Kn 218.2 million). Write-offs and high level of financial expenditures caused Adris to show a Q4 loss of Kn 260.2 million. As for many banks, the write-offs related to Agrokor will likely mean one bad year, but overall stability of the company will not change as it continues to bring in strong revenue streams from its basic operations in tourism and insurance. Also, it should be noted that Adris made reservations related to Agrokor already in 2026, when it made reservations of Kn 432.9 million on total extended loans of Kn 1.53 billion (mostly loans to Agrokor). Adris stated that it made reservations of 40% at the end of 2016, and continued to monitor the situation in 2017 and adjust its balance sheets accordingly. These reservations did not cause Adris shares to lose any value so apparently Adris investors included them in their calculations already.
Banks are also making reservations related to Agrokor, but so far none started to sink with it. Biggest loss was shown by Hrvatska Poštanska Banka, whose profit was almost completely erased by reservations. ZABA’s profit was halved, but managed to stay at still impressive Kn 839 million. ZABA had to increase its reservations by Kn 665 million (up 86%) to Kn 1.4 billion, mostly because of its exposure to Agrokor and related companies.
Privredna managed its risks better, and managed to show a profit of Kn 1.35 billion in spite of having to increase some reservations related to Agrokor.
Biggest relative loser so far seems to be Tehnika, which had to include reservations on Agrokor related claims of Kn 105 million, raising its annual loss to Kn 141 million. Tehnika is also in danger or Zagorje-Tehnobeton blocking its accounts over an unpaid debt of Kn 50 million.
But all of this is just preliminary and real extent of losses will be known only after the final agreement is reached and companies show write offs in their books.

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